April 28, 2014 / continuous improvement, Cost Management, human capital, industry news, lean manufacturing, LIT, predictive management, preventative maintenance, strategic planning
For most of the industrial metal-cutting industry, things are staring to look up. Earlier this month, the World Steel Association released its Short Range Outlook for 2014 and 2015. The forecast projects that global apparent steel use will increase by 3.1% in 2014 and by 3.3% in 2015. Regional projections are also positive. While the U.S. showed a decrease of -0.6% in apparent steel use in 2013, the global association forecasts that apparent steel use in the U.S. will grow by 4.0% in 2014 and by 3.7% in 2015.
However, even with its positive forecast, World Steel expects continued volatility and uncertainty to create a challenging environment for steel companies this year. And many metals executives are feeling that uncertainty. As stated in LIT’s 2014 Outlook for Industrial Metal-Cutting Companies, most industrial metal-cutting companies are only cautiously optimistic about today’s market.
This is especially true of many forging industry executives, who were encouraged by sales increases in 2012, only to be disappointed with no growth and some decreases in 2013. Specifically, the Forging Industry Association (FIA) reports that total industry shipments for the custom impression die forging industry were at $7.313 billion in 2013, down slightly from $7.337 billion in 2012. Meanwhile, 2012 total industry shipments by the custom open die forging industry were 15% below 2012, and shipments for the custom seamless rolled ring forging industry were basically flat. (You can view FIA’s final sales data here.)
As forging executives move into the second quarter, there are some trends unfolding in 2014 that they should be watching closely. A recent column from IndustryWeek does a good job of describing five higher level trends that are affecting most of the manufacturing industry. These include the following:
- Increased reliance on automation and robots
- Rapid prototyping
- Smaller orders
- Leaner factories
On an operations level, there is perhaps one prevailing trend—the relentless push for continuous improvement. In an uncertain market, operations managers are realizing they have no choice but to optimize and become more agile. In some cases, this requires capital investment, but many industry leaders are discovering alternative ways to improve operations. LIT’s benchmark study of industrial metal-cutting companies, for example, identifies three key areas where managers can make improvements without adding new capital expense:
- Invest in Smarter, More Predictive Operations Management
- Embrace Proactive Care and Maintenance of Tools & Equipment
- Invest in Human Capital
Of course, there is no crystal ball for what 2014 will bring, and as the last few years have taught manufacturing executives, nothing is ever certain. In the end, the key will be for forging companies to strategically consider industry trends (i.e., smaller orders), while also proactively improving what is happening inside their doors.