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How Fabricators Can Prepare for Whatever 2015 Brings

April 10, 2015 / , , , , , , , , , , , ,


As we reported in our 2015 Industrial Metal Cutting Outlook, most manufacturers are expecting some growth in 2015, although no one expects it to be a banner year. “Modest improvement,” “slight gains,” and “steady” are just a few of the words being used to describe 2015 business prospects.

On Track
Based on recent data, those words seem fairly accurate. According to the latest report from Institute for Supply Management (ISM), activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the 27th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 70th consecutive month. However, it is worth noting that ISM’s readings for March were lower than February’s readings. Specifically, March PMI registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from February’s reading of 52.9 percent and, even more noteworthy, the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The New Orders Index registered 51.8 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the reading of 52.5 percent in February. Even so, PMI and the New Orders Index readings were above the set thresholds of 43.1 and 52.1, respectively, which indicate overall growth.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries covered in ISM’s report, 10 reported growth in March, including fabricated metal products. As one respondent from the fabricated metal products segment told ISM, “Our business is still strong and on projection. Dollar strength is challenging for our international business.”

Planning for Growth
According to industry publication The Fabricator, most fabricators went into 2015 expecting steady growth, and many planned on investing in capacity-building equipment to prepare for increasing customer demand. “The fabricating industry is looking to add capacity to gear up for the unexpected,” the magazine said in its 2015 Metal Fabrication Forecast. “Custom fabricators are all too familiar with demand variability, and demand has become even more variable in recent years.”

Quoting findings from FMA’s 2015 Capital Spending Forecast, The Fabricator says most fabricators are planning to build capacity with more equipment. “Projected capital spending growth has slowed from the dramatic rebound seen postrecession—2015 projections are up only 3.5 percent over 2014—but the spending has shifted,” the magazine says. “Specifically, fabricators are expecting to spend much less on consumables and supplies (down almost 30 percent) and more on capacity-building machinery, especially in cutting and forming, where spending has jumped past prerecession levels.”

Ready for Anything
Regardless of whether or not you entered the year bullish or cautious, most industry leaders would agree that being proactive is the only way to approach today’s marketplace. While you may or may not be planning to add capacity this year, there are several other strategies you can use to prepare your operation for whatever 2015 brings.

In fact, a recent article from IndustryWeek suggests that there are five tests every manufacturer should run quarterly to gauge “factory readiness.” These include the following:

  1. Utilization versus capacity: Are utilization and capacity running even?
  2. Per-project profitability: Is per-project profitability acceptable?
  3. Client mix: Could the client mix be improved?
  4. Workload diversity: Will the current and expected workload allow for learning new skills and expanding the business?
  5. Sick time and personal time off: Are workers motivated to deliver exceptional work? If not, why not?
  6. As the IW articles notes, forecasting the future with any measure of precision is difficult under the best of conditions, and manufacturing tends to have less visibility than most industries. However, by regularly following and measuring your operation’s performance, fabricators can not only be better prepared for what might happen in the near future, but more importantly, be prepared to handle unexpected changes.